Probability, especially conditional probability, can be a slippery concept for young statisticians.  Statements that seem self-evident on the surface often require a daunting amount of calculations to explicate, or turn out to be not so self-evident after all. This extensive unit on probability, however, takes these challenges and breaks them into bite-sized and scaffolded chunks. Learners take real-life scenarios and apply rules and logic of conditional probability to tease out connections and inferences. Alpha and beta error are attacked with finesse, as are conclusions surrounding event independence. Several different methods of diagramming probability (Venn, tree, and chart) are developed concurrently, so that young statisticians get a real grounding in the intuition of probability.